I e-mailed him on his website http://www.tonyblairoffice.org/ with a request of an autograph photo. More than a week later, I received an autograph photo from him.
Sadly this seems to confirm that email requests are being responded to with non authentic signatures, and the signatures are now matching across the board. I had previously received successes from Tony and indeed was of the opinion that he was signing genuinely. With a huge range of identical signatures now, it would appear he has changed his habits, and that includes the one I previously thought to be real that Lewis received.
It's a shame, but may be different if you write to him via snail mail.
Things not to do, forget your autosaved password for a forum. Woops.